Vietnam is recreating an economic flywheel that has propelled growth in bigger markets, despite the volatile global economic backdrop, according to Warburg Pincus CEO Jeffrey Perlman.
“I don’t think the impact of tariffs will slow down [the Vietnamese economy],” Perlman said during an investment conference hosted by its portfolio company Techcombank on Wednesday.
He praised Vietnam’s business-centric, pro-growth government which is undertaking a bold political overhaul to merge administrative units and break down its bureaucracy, calling it “noticeable and very positive”.
“Vietnam has done a very good job in developing a deeper relationship with the US through trade discussions that are set up pretty well for the future,” said Perlman, who also wears the hat of the ASEAN-US Business Council chairman. The revised 20% tariffs granted early by the Donald Trump administration also contributes to Vietnam’s competitiveness, according to him.
Among the biggest beneficiaries from the China-plus-one strategy, Vietnam is well positioned in the global supply chain thanks to its strong supplier base and an “exceptional workforce”, while other markets are still struggling with the ability to produce at scale in certain areas, Perlman asserted.
Take BW Industrial, one of Warburg Pincus’s investee companies in Vietnam. The industrial real estate developer secured nearly 1 million square metres of leases within the first five months of 2025, achieving over 80% of its full-year KPI and more than doubling the volume achieved during the same period in 2024. “That’s a good indication to me that Vietnam is pretty well positioned,” Perlman said.
He feels Vietnam is at an inflection point. When the US private equity firm first started looking at opportunities in Vietnam 13 years ago, the country’s GDP per capita was at the sub-$3,000 range, and the entire stock market capitalisation was less than $40 billion.
Today, Vietnam’s GDP per capita is marching towards $5,000, and the stock market is north of $200-250 billion.
“That’s where things really take off. Consumption gets unleashed further, and it becomes an amazing feedback loop,” the executive said.
When it comes to the liquidity concerns cited by some private equity investors, Perlman pointed to the successful listings of Vincom Retail and Techcombank, which were among the largest IPOs in the country.
“We’ve shown it,” he said, “but obviously we need to continue to show more.”
Another important factor to facilitate exits is the stability of policies, and the encouragement of foreign investment into the country, which–according to Perlman–has existed.
“That will create more access, which then helps creating the flywheel to move from an emerging market into a more mature economy over time.”
Perlman described Vietnam’s growth story as a movie he has already seen in markets like China and India. India, for instance, has seen that “flywheel” working perfectly with a buoyant stock market, surging consumption, and growing investor confidence.
Other Vietnam companies in Warburg Pincus’s portfolio include e-wallet MoMo, hospital group Xuyen A, and hospitality platform Lodgis. DealStreetAsia reported earlier that Techcombank was open to a stake sale that could also pave the way for a potential exit for the US investor.
The most recent deal in Asia by the private equity firm is India’s IDFC First Bank, which was made right after Liberation Day.
“We’re living in a very complex macro and geopolitical environment. It’s a very complicated period to invest. But you can’t be paralysed by the moment,” Perlman said, expressing that performance is ultimately determined by the strength of the underlying business, not by noise.
His advice to investors: consistency matters: “You need to invest about the same amount year in and year out. In times like this, people need an extra push to see above the trees. That’s what produces the most consistent returns over time.”
